Forecasting - Error Measures

Suppose you have the sales information between Period 1 and Period 10.  You need to do the sales forecast and use indicators to evaluate model (Bias, MAD, MAPE, MSE, Std Error)

Period Sales
1 60
2 67
3 50
4 58
5 62
6 60
7 55
8 62
9 71
10 65

1) Naive Forecast - use last periods number as your forecast.  Since you're using last periods number as your forecast, the forecast for Period 1 is NOT available. 

 

1) Error & Bias

Text Box: =AVERAGE(D8:D16)
Text Box: =AVERAGE(E8:E16)
Text Box: =AVERAGE(F8:F16)

 

2) Absolute Error & MAD

 

3) Absolute Percentage Error & MAPE

 

4) Squared Error & MSE

    Text Box: =AVERAGE(G8:G16)

5) Standard Error